German Market News Alerts
Thursday, 9. February 2012
German exports set record of a trillion euros - Imports on record level, too
Wiesebaden, 08 February 2012 - Germany's trade surplus reached 158bn euros (£132bn; $209bn) in 2011 on record exports that rose 11.4% to top 1tn euros for the first time. The national statistics office also said that imports rose 13.2% to reach an all-time high of 902bn euros.
In 2010, the trade surplus for Europe's biggest economy was 155bn euros. German exports to countries outside the 27-nation European Union showed the strongest growth last year, up 13.6% to 432.8bn euros.
Exports to other EU countries rose 9.9% to 627.3bn euros. Of those, 420.9bn euros went to the eurozone bloc, an 8.6% rise.
Germany's balance of payments, a broader measure of exchanges with other countries that includes financial transactions, showed a surplus of 136bn euros 2011, down from 142bn euros the year before.
Source: BBC.co.uk/news
Monday, 6. February 2012
German Manufacturing Orders Rise
Frankfurt am Main, 06 February 2012 - German manufacturing orders rose more than expected in December, driven by a surge in demand from outside the euro zone, in the latest sign that Europe's largest economy may yet avoid recession despite the euro zone's debt crisis.
New orders rose 1.7% on the month in adjusted terms, after slumping by a downwardly revised 4.9% in November, data from the economics ministry showed Monday. Experts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected an increase of 1% in December.
December's increase in orders was "based on a considerable rise in foreign orders", which were up by an adjusted 4.3% on the month, after falling 7.8% the previous month, the ministry said. That increase was driven by orders from outside the euro zone, which rose by a massive 12.3% on the month, more than cancelling out November's 10% drop.
"It is too early to call this a rebound", but there is "still sufficient demand" for German goods "to keep the industrial engine running in 2012," said Carsten Brzeski, an analyst at ING Bank in Brussels.
Recent business confidence indicators have signalled that Germany's economy retains some traction despite the euro-zone's ongoing debt crisis. Germany's Ifo research institute said last month that its closely-watched business confidence indicator rose for the third straight month in January, beating expectations.
Meanwhile, German consumer research firm GfK said last month its forward-looking indicator would increase to 5.9 points in February from an upwardly revised 5.7 points in January, beating analysts' expectations.
Source: Tom Fairless, The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, 26. January 2012
German Consumer Mood High
FRANKFURT—German consumers remain upbeat about the country's economic prospects, despite the threat of the European debt crisis, the consumer research firm GfK reported Thursday.
GfK said its forward-looking indicator will remain in strong territory and is due to increase to 5.9 points in February from 5.7 points in January, raised from an initial report in January of 5.6 points.
"Consumers are battling against the mounting trend toward recession throughout Europe," GfK said in a statement. The group added that this development will likely weigh on the German economy as struggling European partner countries make it harder for Germany to retain strong export figures. Nevertheless, "so far, the economic engine in Germany is still running smoothly."
GfK said that even against the backdrop of a slowing economy, Germany's employment situation "will remain positive." The research firm also pointed to data from Germany's Ifo Institute showing that companies "continue to look to the future with optimism."
Ifo announced Wednesday that its key indicator of business confidence rose for the third-straight month, beating expectations. While businesses' assessments of their current situation fell slightly, six-month expectations outperformed forecasts. "The German economy has started the year positively," Ifo wrote.
GfK attributed the upbeat outlook in part to a lull in media coverage of Europe's debt crisis over the holiday season. But with the crisis once again generating headlines, the effect on the German consumer mood remains an open question.
While GfK's overall consumer-climate index refers to the following month, its subindexes—economic expectations, income expectations and buying propensity—refer to the current month. The subindexes all increased in January, though income expectations only grew by 0.1 point.
The economic expectations index increased to 7.5 points in January from minus 0.9 points in the previous month. Income expectations inched up to 34.1 points from 34 points, while willingness to buy surged to 41.8 points from 27.4 points.
Income expectations were boosted by the "extremely positive situation" on the German labor market, where it is expected that unemployment will keep falling. Also a labor shortage in some fields is upping expectations of salary rises.
The willingness-to-buy category matched its level of one year ago and has not had a higher value since Dec. 2006. GfK cites numerous reasons for this: "The positive development in employment is reducing fears of unemployment and is therefore strengthening confidence in planning for the future."
Moreover, the debt crisis has motivated some Germans to make big purchases rather than save, the report said. Given lack of trust in financial markets and "historically low interest rates," German consumers appear to be more keen to make high-value purchases than to save, GfK said.
Source: The Wall Street Journal Europe, GfK
Sunday, 15. January 2012
Germany lifts Computacenter out of UK slump
London - Computacenter saw UK revenues plunge 13 per cent last year, but says growth in Germany and France more than offset its home-turf woes.
The mega-reseller's continental performance prompted it to say in a pre-close trading statement that it was entering 2012 in a "positive mood" despite the "challenging customer capital environment" in the UK.
Overall group revenues for the year to 31 December are expected to come in 7 per cent up on the year. Excluding acquisitions they will be up 3 per cent, or 2 per cent excluding currency adjustments. Adjusted profit per tax will be "in line with the board's expectations".
UK revenues slipped 13 per cent over the full year, but Computacenter said the rate of decline slowed as the year progressed, with the fourth quarter down 6 per cent on the year. While supply chain revenues were down 18 per cent on the year, services revenues were down just 2 per cent, with figures for the fourth quarter coming out 8 per cent down and flat respectively.
The firm said incremental new contract wins to the tune of £60m "bode well" for its UK services business this year, "particularly in the second half".
In contrast to the UK's sickly performance, Computacenter's German operation saw revenues shoot up 22 per cent, or 18 per cent excluding acquisitions and in constant currency. While this partly reflected a weak 2010 in the first half, this was not the case in the second half, which saw overall growth of 18 per cent.
Supply chain revenues in Germany were up 26 per cent as reported, while services revenues was up 15 per cent.
Next door, in France, revenues were up 34 per cent as reported, 8 per cent excluding acquisitions, or 6 per cent excluding acquisitions in constant currency. Supply chain revenues were up 38 per cent as reported, and services revenues were up 14 per cent.
In 2010, Computacenter grew sales by 10.7 per cent to £2.68bn and boosted adjusted profits by 21.8 per cent to £66.1m. The UK business accounted for £1.27bn of that revenue, and £43.3m of adjusted profits.
Source: Channel Register
Thursday, 12. January 2012
2011: Passenger records for Lufthansa and Airberlin
Frankfurt am Main – Last year a total of 106.3 million people took flights on Lufthansa’s SWISS, Austrian Airlines, bmi, Germanwings and of course Lufthansa operated flights. That’s 7.5% more than in the previous year. Lufthansa Cargo transported a total of 1.9 million metric tons of freight, which is an increase of 5% compared to 2010.
Already last week Germany’s second largest airline group, Airberlin, announced that 2011, which was a record year for the entire German travel industry also turned out to be a record year for the Berlin based but London listed airline. The total passenger number rose 1.9% to 35.3 millions, the load factor went up 1.8 per cent to 78.2% while capacities were reduced 1.1%.
In 2011 the German travel industry saw bookings up 5% and revenues up by up to 9.5%. In the same year the German economy grew 3.9% while unemployment dropped to the lowest rate in over 20 years, 6.8 per cent.
Sources: fvw, Berliner Morgenpost, New York Times
Tuesday, 10. January 2012
Tourism industry in Germany achieves record result
The tourism industry draws up the balance closing 2011 with a new record result. No better annual result has been achieved in the last ten years in terms of sales revenues and number of participants than in business year 2010/2011 ending on 31 October 2011. Spain, Greece and numerous long-haul destinations like the Maledives are the winners of the summer 2011. Travel agencies as well as tour operators posted above-average increases in sales revenues. Revenues of travel agencies rose by 2.1 billon euros while tour operators recorded an increase of 2 billion euros.
According to the preliminary economic result published by the German Travel Association (DRV) at the beginning of its Annual Convention in South Korean Daegu, the German travel agencies generated an increase in revenues of about 9.5 percent and tour operators of about 9 percent compared with previous year’s period. “Travelling is and remains one of the central needs of Germans. In 2011, we noticed a continuing desire to travel”, says Jurgen Buchy, President of the German Travel Association pleased.
“Compared with last year’s result that was clearly marked by the repercussions of the global financial and economic crisis in 2009, this year the overall result turned out very good,” explains Buchy. A growth was already recorded in 2010, but low unemployment figures and the positive economic development made themselves felt on the travel market only in 2011. For the coming year, the DRV market researchers expect a continuing positive development of the travel market: They consider a moderate growth of two to three percent possible - depending however on the further general economic development and the imponderables of the eurozone.
The results in detail: In tourism year 2010/2011, sales revenues of high-street and online travel agencies rose by more than 9.5 percent to approx. 22.5 billion euros (previous year: 20.4 billion euros). Looking back at the last ten years, this result exceeds the previous record of 21.8 billion euros set up in 2008. Tour operators achieved sales revenues of 23.3 billion euros this year (plus nine percent compared with previous year’s 21.3 billion euros), thereby clearly exceeding the last decade’s top result of 21.4 billion euros in 2008.
More results at a glance:
Compared with tourism year 2009/2010, about five percent more guests decided to book their holidays with German tour operators. Already last year the number of participants had risen by five percent. Thus, tours organized by travel agencies, whether as packages or travel modules, are more popular than ever and offer a number of advantages over self-organized holidays: they are easier for customers to calculate. With insolvency insurance and many services they provide considerable added value.
In 2011, also the cruise market developed again excellently with an increase in sales revenues of about twelve percent and a marked growth in passenger numbers.
Air travel organized by travel agencies generated an average increase in sales revenues of eleven percent - 12.5 percent for short and medium-haul flights and seven percent for long-distance flights.
So-called earthbound travel by car, rail or bus generated a sales growth of 2.5 percent. Main growth drivers are holidays in Germany as well as wellness holidays and city trips.
In Europe, the destinations Spain, in particular mainland and Balearic Islands, as well as Turkey and Greece attracted growing interest of German holidaymakers in the last tourism year. Also the long-haul destinations in the Indian Ocean like the Maledives, Seychelles and Sri Lanka, as well as Thailand and the Caribbean appealed to more holidaymakers than last year. Canada, the USA and the United Arab Emirates continue to be in high demand. Because of political unrest early in 2011, the North African destinations Egypt and Tunisia recorded declining guest numbers. During the summer season bookings for both countries picked up again, but so far do not reach the level prevailing before the events. However, also the long-distance destinations Australia, Kenia and South Africa suffered slight declines this year. This is mainly due to the additional costs of the air traffic tax amounting to € 45 per person for a long distance flight. Without the increase in the price of flights imposed by the German government, an even stronger growth - especially in long-distance travel - would have been possible or the decline could have been prevented respectively.
Strong growth of travel sales - Tourism and business travel: one billion euros increase each
In the last tourism year 2010/2011 more customers than ever before in the last ten years have booked their tours in a high-street or online travel agency - and never before in the last decade have sales revenues generated by travel agencies been as high as in the last tourism year (as of October 31, 2011). This was stated by the German Travel Association (DRV) at its annual Convention this year held in South Korean Daegu. The tourism sector accounted for 14.7 billion euros (previous year 13.7) and business travel for approx. 7.8 billion euros (2010: 6.7). High-street travel agencies generated a sales increase of about seven percent and business travel agencies of almost 15 percent. Total sales of all travel agencies thus increased by around 9.5 percent to 22.5 billion euros. Hence, in the last ten years, travel sales figures have continuously grown - apart from the crisis year 2009. As the number of travel agencies has reduced in the last years, the existing travel agencies generate more revenues per agency: From 2001 to 2011, the average sales revenues per travel agency rose by 20 percent.
In 2011, the number of high-street travel agencies dropped only slightly, so that today 130 fewer agencies are on the market compared with business year 2009/2010, bringing the total number to 10,240 (569 closedowns as against 439 openings). This is mainly due to the merger of subsidiairies and closedowns of agencies. Of these 10,240 travel agencies, 2,697 are agencies with full Deutsche Bahn and/or Iata license, 6,752 are tourist travel agencies and 791 business travel agencies.
“With the current 10,240 travel agencies and more than 10,000 mobile travel agents, Germany still has one of the highest numbers of travel agencies in the world”, emphasized Jurgen Buchy, President of the German Travel Association. In comparison: in 2009, the United Kingdom counted 5.858 travel agencies (with 61 million inhabitants), Spain 5,100 (with 47 million million inhabitants) and France 4,922 agencies (with 65 million inhabitants) (in 2005, last available data). In the United States (310 million inhabitants) there are 15,000 subsidiaries of about 10,000 travel agencies with a staff of about 120,000 (according to the US Travel Association ASTA).
Statistical data: numbers and sales revenues of travel agencies in the last ten years
year / number sales / revenues in billion euros
2002: 14,235 22.0
2003: 13,684 19.8
2004: 13,753 20.5
2005: 12,639 20.7
2006: 11,866 20.8
2007: 11,404 21.4
2008: 11,046 21.8
2009: 10,717 19.0
2010: 10,370 20.4
2011: 10,240 22.5
Source: DRV German Travel Association, TravelDailyNews
Tuesday, 13. December 2011
German Investor Sentiment Unexpectedly Rose in December
(Bloomberg) -- German investor confidence unexpectedly rose for the first time in 10 months in December, indicating Europe’s largest economy is weathering the region’s debt crisis.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, increased to minus 53.8 from a three-year low of minus 55.2 in November. Economists forecast a drop to minus 55.8, the median of 34 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows.
While the debt crisis is threatening to tip the 17-nation euro region into recession, Germany is showing few signs of slowdown. Industrial production rose more than economists forecast in October, manufacturing orders rebounded and unemployment declined in November, pushing the jobless rate to a seasonally adjusted 6.9 percent.
“Things don’t look so bad at company level,” said Thilo Heidrich, an economist at Deutsche Postbank AG in Bonn, who predicted the ZEW index would increase. “The economic situation isn’t as bad as the debt crisis would suggest. We don’t expect a clear or deep recession in Germany, and that’s reflected in this slight improvement in expectations.”
The euro rose to $1.3225 at 12:25 p.m. in Frankfurt from $1.3170 before the ZEW report. ZEW’s gauge of current conditions fell to 26.8 from 34.2 in November.
Gloomy Outlook
“The slight improvement in confidence may prove temporary,” said Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank in London. It mainly reflects “hopes ahead of last week’s European Union summit that a positive outcome could trigger more action from the European Central Bank to stop the market panic,” he said.
Business Confidence
Still, the Ifo institute’s business confidence gauge rose for the first time in five months in November, and GfK SE predicted consumer confidence will increase in December.
BASF SE on Nov. 29 raised its sales target for the end of this decade, citing emerging-market growth. Juergen Geissinger, chief executive officer of Schaeffler AG, the roller-bearing maker that controls Continental AG, said last month that global orders “remain solid.”
ZEW President Wolfgang Franz said the index shows that investors and financial market experts “expect economic activity to slow down, but not to plunge during the next six months.”
Source: Rainer Buergin, Businessweek.com
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